10,000,000 Year Floodplain

Let's just all be glad we're not Highlanders.

























It is interesting to note though, that the 500 year floodplain came only 15 years after the 100 year floodplain. The mathematician inside me knew that something was hairy.

There are a couple of different ways we can take this.

For one, we can assume a direct linear relationship between the given data. That is, beginning at year 1993 (year 0), and progressing to year 2008 (year 15), we are able to derive rather easily that the equation for the flood plain mark is:

Floodplain Year(x) (FPY) = (x*80/3) + 100
(Equation 1, where "x" is in years)

Try it for yourself: year 0 gives you FPY100, year 15 gives you FPY500.

However, we could take the route of an exponential relationship. In this manner, the equation would be:

FPY = 100*e^(0.1073*x)
(Equation 2, "x" is in years)

Given Equation 1, we are pretty safe. It would take roughly 375,000 years for the 10,000,000 year floodplain to hit. Whew, that was close!

If we apply Equation 2 (the exponential relationship) to the matter at hand, things are bit dicier.
Solving for "x" it can be found that in roughly 107.3 years, the 10,000,000 year floodplain will hit. OK, those of use that are not highlanders are still safe, albeit barely. Future generations? Let's just hope the whole scheme was a plot of the Wolf Family, and Dirk Pitt is around to save us all. Gee, Dirk, thanks!